15% Chance of Rain

"Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo" (akioohtori) 06/03/2019 at 16:07 • Filed to: The Alfa Doesn't Have A Tag Yet

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One wet Alfa.

It was adjusted to an 85% chance after it started raining.

Weather.

PartyPooper2012 > Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo 06/03/2019 at 16:11

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With those odds, go play some lotto or bet on red 36. 

HammerheadFistpunch > Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo 06/03/2019 at 16:14

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I just found this out the other day, and it makes so much sense now. The % isn’t chance it will rain, its probability. meaning that 15% of a given forecast area will get rain. You lucked out on being in the 15% that got rain.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > HammerheadFistpunch 06/03/2019 at 16:20

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I learned that only a couple years ago too. It makes a lot of sense though and explains why they seem to be wrong so often. Just because it didn’t rain where you are doesn’t mean it isn’t elsewhere

Mercedes Streeter > HammerheadFistpunch 06/03/2019 at 16:22

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That was like the first thing we learned when I took meteorology classes (for a brief moment in time I wanted to be a meteorologist). Teacher was like “so you know how the weatherman says 50% chance of rain? What if I told you it had nothing to do with chance?”

Class:

Ash78, voting early and often > HammerheadFistpunch 06/03/2019 at 16:24

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Practically, though, those two concepts are the same (for things like isolated afternoon thunderstorms*) unless you have a very distinct line of storms affecting just part of the area — in that case, it’s 100% for those people, and basically 0% for others. Then the weather people say 50%, which is sort of meaningless.

*I use this as a mainly Southeastern example — especially for FL or coastal areas. Totally clear all morning, then as temps hit the 90s in the afternoon, it can go from clear to full thunderstorms in just an hour or two. But most weather follows/trails a specific front.

RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht > Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo 06/03/2019 at 16:28

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lol probability

HammerheadFistpunch > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 06/03/2019 at 16:28

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Yup, I went out on a 20% chance of rain day and got rained on, hailed on and struck by lightning.  

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > HammerheadFistpunch 06/03/2019 at 16:31

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Hail and lightning don’t count as rain though lol

Also, literally you personally got struck by lightning?

jimz > HammerheadFistpunch 06/03/2019 at 16:31

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yep, IIRC it means “historically when conditions are similar to this, it has rained 15% of those times.” 

Ash78, voting early and often > HammerheadFistpunch 06/03/2019 at 16:32

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One other thing I noticed when I lived in a place where it snowed — the better meteorologists used “POP” (probability of precipitation) rather than “rain chance” or “snow chance” since it was more verbally accurate AND covered all the bases.

MattHurting > RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht 06/03/2019 at 16:54

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Steiner math is the best math!

HammerheadFistpunch > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 06/03/2019 at 17:01

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i didn’t get the full force, but my group did (bunched together) and it knocked me on my ass

Decay buys too many beaters > Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo 06/03/2019 at 17:45

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Are you in the PNW?

Because up here 10% chance of rain means it is going to rain for 10% of the day.